The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded in
1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) to assess the best available
scientific, economic, social, and technical information on climate
change, for the purpose of providing policymakers with an objective
source of information on these complex issues.
Participation on the IPCC is open to all members of UNEP and WMO,
and convenes about once per year. Membership includes 113 nations.
The IPCC is organized in three Working Groups:
- Working Group I studies the basic science behind climate change;
- Working Group II assesses the impacts of climate change and the vulnerability of socio-economics and natural systems; and
- Working Group III addresses options for cutting greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating the impact of climate change.
A Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories provides information to all groups.
The IPCC produces reports and technical papers that serve as
reference materials for policy makers and scientists. More than 2500
scientists contribute to the Working Groups and publications, which are
reviewed by representatives of member countries before release.
Assessment Reports are the most comprehensive of the IPCC publications,
of which there have been four: 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007.
The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (the Report) develops the
information garnered in the first three reports, and provides
longitudinal analysis of the effects greenhouse gases are having on
climate change, and the anthropogenic (human-induced) contribution to
warming. This report goes much further than the 2001 report, stating
with more than 90% certainty that it is very likely that the observed
and documented warming of the earth over the past fifty years has been
caused by human activity. The human contribution to climate change has
been a result of increasing use of fossil fuels and the conversion of
land for agriculture and urbanization.
The release of the Report has resulted in worldwide consensus that
it is indisputable that we are experiencing a global warming of the
sea, earth, and atmosphere. Observed evidence of this warming include
eleven of the last twelve years among the twelve hottest recorded, the
retreat of mountain glaciers and snow cover, and more intense and
longer lasting droughts in the last thirty years.
Warming has farther reaching consequences than what it is doing to
natural systems. Warmer days and heat waves, an imbalance in heavy
precipitation and drought events, and increased typhoons and flooding
impact agriculture, water resources, human health, industry, and
population migration patterns. The Report gives key findings on impacts
that are expected, broken down by systems and sectors.
Some specific highlights that are new in this fourth assessment include:
- Water stored in glaciers and snow cover will decline, reducing available water in those regions supplied by meltwater.
- One-sixth of the world population lives in such areas; as extreme
weather events become more intense and more frequent, their impact will
extend beyond those sectors directly impacted into other areas not
directly hit by such events;
- Imbalance in the negative and positive health impacts caused by
warming will be regionally distributed, which will shape not only
health, but education, population, and economic development.
The shifting weather patterns resulting from climate change will not
impact all geographic areas equally. In the colder northern regions
where there is a short growing season, the overall warming will benefit
agriculture and forestry systems, potentially with a net benefit to
those living in these areas. In the equatorial regions, however, warmer
temperatures will reduce precipitation, altering tropical ecosystems
and exacerbating the water hardships of desert regions.
For islands, the warming of the oceans causes problems for multiple
reasons. By the 2080s, it is expected that glacial melting in colder
regions - Antarctica and Greenland, notably - will cause millions of
people each year to be flooded out of low-lying regions due to rising
sea-levels. The increased temperatures will cause expansion of sea
water volume, additionally causing sea levels to rise, encroaching on
coastal areas and engulfing territory. Increased storm intensity will
also subject these islands with increasing damage from typhoons and
hurricanes. But it's not just expanding seas that threaten shorelines.
The Report identifies Asian and African islands as those that will be
most vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Whatever small advantages high-lying colder regions may experience, the
Report's findings are that the overall impact of climate change will be
a net loss rather than a gain. And regardless of geographic location,
it will be the poorest of the world that will suffer the most from
climate change - and the least able to mitigate and adapt to the
changes. The social, political, and infrastructure pressures of already
tenuous populations becoming rapidly displaced, many of them young and
many in fragile public health conditions, has not yet been fully
calculated.
The Fourth Assessment Report provides an analysis of response to
climate change. Immediate reduction of emissions is a must. Although
current carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will continue to
contribute to additional warming, the amount of greenhouse gases
emitted into the atmosphere must be reduced. Mitigation of the effects
of climate change to reduce the impact must also be undertaken. And
although the report does not state that it can fully compensate for the
path we are on, adaptation will also be necessary to address the
unavoidable impacts of global warming. New approaches to design and
engineering, and even agriculture and forestry, are making it possible
for some to weather the changes brought on by warming. But the report
acknowledges that there are barriers and limits to how far adaptation
can compensate for the changes that will leave many in a very
vulnerable position.
It is clear in reading the assessment reports that immediate and
various policy measures must be taken nationally and internationally -
and that there is no time to spare in committing to reduction,
mitigation, and adaptation.
All of the Assessment Reports and other special reports of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change can be found online at this
website:
www.ipcc.ch
Prepared for Live Green, Live Smart by Rosamund Mische John